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    WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

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    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:29 pm

    I really have no idea why people use items as such an arguing point. Anyone can claim to have or passed an item and not be lying. It doesn't mean they are a wolf or not. If Telle DID start the fake item then why the hell haven't people said "okay one of the wolves creates illusions of items, must be her". That most certainly is a possibility. It is also a possibility that the wolves did not really know how the item illusion works nor how it would be revealed (as they never seem to in other games when hit with a rule they don't know).

    bhlloy

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by bhlloy on Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:57 pm

    I'm decently confident that Autumn is a wolf at this stage. I noticed it in the first couple days that he was latching onto whatever the majority was behind and really pushing for it, when usually he's the one putting out good analysis and isn't afraid to speak his own theories, and it's seems he's doing it again today.

    I agree about the item stuff CF. IF anybody is controlling the items it's the wolves, because they know roughly who is who. The fact that it got passed to a villager doesn't mean anything, if anything a wolf is more likely to make that play because they know who the villagers are and they are never going to get caught passing it to a non-villager. Seems like everyone is way too hung up on that right now and isn't paying attention to what is actually being said between the lines in-game.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:19 pm

    Yeah when Autumn is a villager he gives analysis and keeps things pretty neutral. When he's a wolf, he hammers and points fingers. However lately a lot of people have been off and such I think because of mysteriuous rules and or different player assortment to make things confusing. So I'm not really sure. Telle usually is VERY quiet, like ntn quiet. until her name is mentioned. I don't know what she's like as a wolf. It really could be that none of the frontrunners are wolves. THere are plenty other people playing.

    I still see barkeep/jeheinz being wolves. I think barkeep at this point. SOMEONE had to have voted for dubb as first nk. And I don't think it was one of the regulars unless it was hoops or lathum. Lathum has been quiet today buit most think he's safe. hoops is playing a very hoops as wolf type of game I think.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:23 pm

    There are a lot of votes from analysis being revealed as vilalger votes. I've never been one to even care where people vote. Because wolves throw votes on wolves all the time especially lately. But this game, this game is different. It LOOKS like there is no seer. That Odin was seer and thus is gone now without a scan. So the wolves are safer sitting low in the confusion. Confusion = happy wolves. So I really don't see a need for wolves to bury other wolves unless it were danny or hoops. I really see danny sacrificing himself for the others. Thus I'd look to danny voters for wolves. However days 3-4 I don't see the wolves taking ANY chances. So any vote that really damns a wolf I see as absolute villager.

    From there, there are plenty of targets left who are not participating much.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:49 pm

    Day 3 analysis:

    Voted DV

    Narcizo (weak)
    Barkeep (weak)
    hoops (7-5-4)

    mckerney (3-5-2)
    Lathum (6-4-4)
    ntndeacon (5-5-4)
    Racer (8-6-3)
    Zinto (9-7)


    Suspect on DV unvoting
    Autumn twice
    Lathum
    Racer


    Votes others:
    BK:
    Autumn (off DV)
    Autumn (off DV)
    Zinto (off ntn)
    mau


    Lathum:
    Telle (6-7) vs DV
    Autumn (7-Cool vs DV

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:52 pm

    So based on DV's ouster, I would not vote ZInto, ntn, Lathum, mckerney, or Racer. Lathum and Racer I think had other reasons as well for being villagery that I can't remember.

    Telle and Autumn's both were trying to save DV, whether it was just a "I'm not voting him" type of thing or not. Autumn unvoted DV twivce to try and give Barkeep momentum then goes ack to lathum, the popular choice of the day after Telle tries to up that vote.


    Narcizo, barkeep and hoop could actually be wolf on wolf votes but I'll give them a pass for now.

    I do think Telle and Autumn are good people to vote for right now.
    mauboy for sure. jeheinz for sure.

    bhlloy

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by bhlloy on Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:23 pm

    Sometimes the simplest explanation is the correct one... I'd be shocked if Telle and Autumn are a wolf pair because they are both better players than that, but it sure as hell looks like they are playing a bad pair right now. You almost have to vote one of them today just to find out if they are or not.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:38 pm

    waffle og the game:
    Barkeep:
    "Considering that these are really our top two candidates I would encourage you to vote for which one you think is best."

    LOLOLOLOLOLOL bounce

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:41 pm

    ntndeacon is just not a good vote right now. He really helped bury dv even though more people voted after him.
    And DV wasn't even a hugely obvious candidate.

    today's result will speak volumes IF they get a wolf. I really think Telle is the correct vote today of the candidates.

    IT doesn't HAVE to be Telle AND Autumn. It is very very typical that a wolf defends a villager or a villager defends a wolf.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:51 pm

    ahahahahahahahahahahahahaha this village is like clown village.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:53 pm

    AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA pig

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:00 pm

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:01 pm

    AHAHAH AHA HAHAH *choke* Autumn voted for himself. That's a villager Autumn for sure. Smile

    HEHEHEHEHEHEHE

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:04 pm

    For when Autumn actually gets in here:

    Autumn, self-votes only scream villager when _I_ do it. *grin*

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:10 pm

    Does Santa Claus give him Valhalla? Or does Santa Claus give him coal?

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:30 pm

    JAG, you dick. Smile Stop sending people to Valhalla so that they can come in here and chat. What do you think this is anyway, a game or something? Wink

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:39 pm

    FOr some reason I'm envisioning Valhalla as being like the jury on Survivor.

    Admin
    Admin

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Admin on Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:00 pm

    Crimson Fox wrote:JAG, you dick. Smile Stop sending people to Valhalla so that they can come in here and chat. What do you think this is anyway, a game or something? Wink

    Part of the charm of Valhalla for me was giving people who were 'out of the game' their own speculation thread in-game. Smile

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:09 am

    I'm confused if the named people are in Valhalla or not. Thor, Odin, etc. It seems not.
    Not sure what happened to the wolves either. Haven't seen them around.

    oh wait. Dubb was in here. He was Odin right. bhlloy I forget who he was. But the 2 wolves are absent.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:14 am

    Admin wrote:
    Crimson Fox wrote:JAG, you dick. Smile Stop sending people to Valhalla so that they can come in here and chat. What do you think this is anyway, a game or something? Wink

    Part of the charm of Valhalla for me was giving people who were 'out of the game' their own speculation thread in-game. Smile


    A PM Speculation thread? Smile
    PFFFF! I would so not be able to handle that. I'm still one space away from being full.

    bhlloy

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by bhlloy on Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:25 am

    Well that shows what I know... I guess Autumn is good enough not to make it that obvious when he's a wolf Very Happy

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:27 am

    I think Autumn is so shell shocked lately he is acting like a wolf when he is not. I've been the same way really.
    I thought Telle was a much better vote than Autumn actually.

    I still don't see a wolf casting a damning vote on DV.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:00 pm

    blah this game is really really sucking. Not from your end jag, of course. Just what the people are doing and the amount of sudden various inactivity that kills the game.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:01 pm

    I really can't believe they are gonna let today's vote go down with so many one-votes.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:04 pm

    Fucking Barkeep is absolutely a wolf.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:05 pm

    I think Bug is too. Racer I"m not sure about. Everyone gave him a pass. I have no idea why. Zinto I have my doubt about. Just go after hoops voters now I think.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:10 pm

    I really think the wolves have this in the bag at this point. WIth no seer and fleeting activity of two people. People don't like voting for inactives.
    And the rest of them are all chaos. Even when they're all on we end up with people with 2 votes and 1 vote and 1 vote. I really think today was a "hoops is alive therefore he must be a wolf" kind of desperation vote.

    Admin
    Admin

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Admin on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:12 pm

    Crimson Fox wrote:I really think the wolves have this in the bag at this point. WIth no seer and fleeting activity of two people. People don't like voting for inactives.
    And the rest of them are all chaos. Even when they're all on we end up with people with 2 votes and 1 vote and 1 vote. I really think today was a "hoops is alive therefore he must be a wolf" kind of desperation vote.

    Oh if you only knew...stay tuned...

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:12 pm

    LOL ntn the silent. Well I guess desperation votes on hoops still I guess count for something because there was absolutely no sound reasoning in that vote.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:13 pm

    At least you don't have to find a replacement for ntn AGAIN. And there's no way in hell I would have done that. Have done it twice in the last three games and always get screwed by it with less scans and stuff.

    Zinto

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Zinto on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:51 pm

    Well I reread the rules right after ten and knew I was going to be killed.

    Zinto

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Zinto on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:53 pm

    And now I would say there maybe a 99% chance we lose the game. Dang McKerney out smarted me Sad

    Zinto

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Zinto on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:56 pm

    And I was hoping the vote manipulation would have led to Hoops being voted out the next day. All in all I enjoyed being a wolf but realized it is a lot less stressful being a villager that no one depends on Smile

    Admin
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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Admin on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:58 pm

    Yeah, that was a clever move on his part IMO, though he oversold it a bit and I thought you would figure out what was up, I think he was still right to come out at that point and reveal his scan info.

    Zinto

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Zinto on Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:02 pm

    Yep I figured he was trying to buy an extra scan. It made sense that only one wolf could kill him since we had to submit a kill order and I guess I took it at face value too much.

    Admin
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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Admin on Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:10 pm

    Zinto wrote:Yep I figured he was trying to buy an extra scan. It made sense that only one wolf could kill him since we had to submit a kill order and I guess I took it at face value too much.

    Yeah, in fact he lied about that altogether (he had no night kill protection),, but you discovered one of the reasons there was a kill order.

    I'm pretty sure I badly botched the balance in this one, which disappoints me a lot. It's a shame, I think I had some good ideas, but overall I didn't implement things nearly as well as I would have liked.

    CF, why couldn't you have given me some advice like not doing too complicated a game for my first one?

    ....oh yeah.


    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:32 pm

    My favorite line of the game:

    Hoops: In Shawshank Redemption, this is where Andy calls the warden "obtuse".

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:34 pm

    Admin wrote:
    Zinto wrote:Yep I figured he was trying to buy an extra scan. It made sense that only one wolf could kill him since we had to submit a kill order and I guess I took it at face value too much.

    Yeah, in fact he lied about that altogether (he had no night kill protection),, but you discovered one of the reasons there was a kill order.

    I'm pretty sure I badly botched the balance in this one, which disappoints me a lot. It's a shame, I think I had some good ideas, but overall I didn't implement things nearly as well as I would have liked.

    CF, why couldn't you have given me some advice like not doing too complicated a game for my first one?

    ....oh yeah.


    You mean say something like "DOn't run a complicated game for your first one."? SOmething like that? SOMETHING LIKE THAT JAG?!?!?!?

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:45 pm

    I think the curse of hoops is that no one will ever believe him about anything because he is so easy to believe in anything he says. BUt actually when hoops is lying he is a lot more velvetty and satanlike, not screaming bloody murder. Perhaps he's taking lessons from me.

    Admin
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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Admin on Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:26 am

    Crimson Fox wrote:My favorite line of the game:

    Hoops: In Shawshank Redemption, this is where Andy calls the warden "obtuse".

    I enjoyed that one as well.

    Admin
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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Admin on Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:40 am

    In case you come back Zinto, the game could have gotten quite a bit more intriguing had you gone with your original choice for the NK, as that player is the one with the hidden role, and removing him would've been a big help for you in a couple different ways. Not a guaranteed victory but you guys would've had some elements in your favor that could've let you pull off a very impressive comeback after a rough start.

    Zinto

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Zinto on Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:43 am

    Yeah I was really afraid of the scan.
    Spoiler:
    I should have followed Mau's advice since I was a little in over my head this game. Mau is the king of fake reveals though and did his perfectly so that most people believed him initially/

    Admin
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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Admin on Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:50 am

    Perhaps an even more hilarious irony...he was scanning the person you were going to kill. Smile

    Admin
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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Admin on Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:56 am

    In case anyone was still trying to sort out the wolves, I spoiler'ed part of your message above.

    Zinto

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Zinto on Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:00 am

    Oops didn't even think about not putting the wolf's name in the post. I was wondering if he was going to scan the person we killed but eventually I was going down. I think the only good thing I had going was Racer(At least I think) did not think I was a wolf

    Admin
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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by Admin on Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:35 am

    I think you underestimate your odds there, but you'll see what I mean in the post-mortem. It's part 2 of 'I'm amazed at how a game can turn on such a little detail.'

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:00 pm

    Zinto could you please stop clearing people in this thread. Smile

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:13 pm

    Wow hoops really is going superaggressive "FUCK YOU ALL VILLAGERS" here. That is sooo a play from my handbook. Smile

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:38 pm

    I really haven't tried to figure out roles. Hidden role you say? fun. There are so many roles and actually they are all hidden roles for the most part since it doesn't spell out what any of them do. So anyone can claim anything about any role. I'm actually surprised the vilalge is doing this well actually. mckerney did break the game open. And mauboy...welll...his lies are classic. They have lies growing out of them.

    CrimsonFox

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    Re: WW CXXVI Wolves in Asgard speculation thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Wed Aug 17, 2011 4:15 pm

    Mr Bug:
    I think Racer needs to guess who to send the mistletoe to to avoid
    getting it to the wolves. Sending it to an uncleared player would be
    foolish

    Um....pretty much everyone except EF is uncleared really. Smile I guess Racer has trust but that's not the same as being cleared.
    Wow EF is really being stingy with the dream descriptions.

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