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    Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

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    Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Wed Jun 22, 2011 10:47 am

    I think No Lynch is bad. Sure you might lynch the seer or have them NK'ed, but you also have a 2/10 chance to lynch a wolf, 1/10 chance to lynch the sorcerer (not ideal, but better than a villager kill), and you'll have useful voting info in a short game where every day is highly significant. If you're going No Lynch, better to do it at the end of the game where voting record won't matter anymore. So, are the people suggesting it on the bad team or are they villagers making a miscalculation? (or am I? Smile )

    Zinto

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Zinto on Wed Jun 22, 2011 8:40 pm

    I have already learned from this experience on how to improve on running a game since I think my rules where not clear enough on the outset.

    If I was playing in the game I know I would be jumping all over Narcizo for wanting to vote no lynch since he is one of the people who was so against it in the Dark Knight.

    Zinto

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Zinto on Wed Jun 22, 2011 8:41 pm

    But this could be my fault since my experience with werewolf is little and I made the game with an even number of people playing.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Wed Jun 22, 2011 9:47 pm

    Well, in bigger games whether the people are odd or even isn't always controllable based on what roles are available (brutal, BG, villagers with NK ability can all change the calculation). I don't think it's a big deal myself.

    I think it's crap the new guy is the leading vote getter. One of my few cardinal rules is any new or long-time away returning player gets a D1 pass from me. Hopefully it doesn't discourage him.

    Zinto

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Zinto on Wed Jun 22, 2011 10:21 pm

    It hopefully will not discourage him. He got confused on how many votes people had at the end and I go in his ear that making yourself the day one lynch target probably was not the best idea. Other then that he has been feeling his way through kind of blindly since I do not think he has read a full game yet.

    Zinto

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Zinto on Wed Jun 22, 2011 10:22 pm

    And Crimson's role playing is giving me a chuckle

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Wed Jun 22, 2011 10:38 pm

    Well, he didn't get lynched in the end so that's good.

    Zinto

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Zinto on Wed Jun 22, 2011 10:47 pm

    Yes it is. Other then telling him unvoting DV was a terrible mistake, I haven't really been able to help him as much as I thought I might be able to since I fear giving away something in the game.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:55 am

    I hear you. It would be helpful if someone like Lathum was around, someone who wasn't playing who had time to help him with things being this is either a relatively new game to him or at least people that he's unfamiliar with.

    Chubby makes a somewhat puzzling NK to me. I guess the reasons I see are:

    1. An attempt to frame Niccus.
    2. He was potentially hounding someone who was a wolf.
    3. A wolf picked up a clue that he had a role.

    I would discard 3. as I didnt notice anything this game opposed to last (though if I'm wrong on that, everything else I suggest will be way off-base Smile ). 1. is the obvious conclusion, though it doesn't necessarily make it correct. In fact, if he is a wolf, I would think the wolves will kill a villager on Niccus than DV. But I'm most interested in 2. If Niccus is a villager, the wolves knew they got a pretty good hand for D1. That would mean they just need a lynch today to be in a good position number-wise. If Chubby was off-base on his accusations today, then it would be better to keep him alive and let him run down an innocent villager. My best guess people of interest today would be:

    1. PF - I didn't get a very wolfy vibe, but he's the one Chubby was rather suspicious of at the end of the day.
    2. Jackal - Wolfy vibe, and the most suspicious DV voter left alive.

    Despite what I said yesterday, today might be a more reasonable case for No Lynch. The wolves pick off another victim and then it's do or die day for the village at 4-2-1, but with one fewer candidate and hopefully an extra seer scan in the mix (and the seer reveals right after the night deadline with his info in case he's NK'ed). I'm not sure if that would be better than just playing it normally and potentially going to 3-2-1, which isn't a guaranteed win since the wolves and sorcerer dont know each other (and the sorcerer could potentially be the NK tonight). If the sorcerer has a good bead on who the wolves are, a fake seer reveal could be pretty good for today.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 23, 2011 12:28 pm

    Jackal radar still going off. He would be my vote at this point.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 23, 2011 2:34 pm

    Assuming mckerney is telling the truth, that implicates Jackal even more, he putting a second vote on a villager after Mau the wolf got up to 2 votes.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Fri Jun 24, 2011 11:42 am

    I feel decently about Autumn. I think he makes a good point about CF as did Narcizo, that he's a reasonable sorcerer candidate. I'm sticking with Jackal as my vote for wolf though. Haven't seen any reason to change my mind yet.

    Wolves, next time kill someone I can gab with rather than leaving me alone to write a diary.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Fri Jun 24, 2011 11:50 am

    PF is making me a bit uneasy too though. I could see him as a possibility, especially as a good reason to go after Chubby N1 and possibly why CF, a potential sorcerer, would suggest PF is absolutely not a wolf. I'd have to read back on D1 to solidify why he voted / unvoted Mau which I won't be doing.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Fri Jun 24, 2011 7:49 pm

    I expect to see Narcizo in this space starting post-night deadline.

    Autumn

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Autumn on Sat Jun 25, 2011 8:38 am

    Jackal is my bet too, I don't know that he's going to last at this point.

    I'm frustrated I couldn't be on at deadline last night. All I had to do was switch at the last moment and we'd have the game in the bag. They probably would have given me the tie breaking vote for me. Greer.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Autumn on Sat Jun 25, 2011 8:43 am

    I had a fake reveal ready for immediately after night two, if mckerney hadn't revealed. In this game it didn't make sense to fake any earlier.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Sat Jun 25, 2011 8:57 am

    If I had been in Jackal's shoes, I might've tried killing Narcizo and tried to convince Niccus/PF to vote for CF (with the caveat I'm not a very good wolf Smile ). Narcizo was the most anti-Jackal candidate left. Which means if Niccus or CF is the wolf, they chose their kill well.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Sat Jun 25, 2011 9:04 am

    Autumn wrote:I had a fake reveal ready for immediately after night two, if mckerney hadn't revealed. In this game it didn't make sense to fake any earlier.

    I actually thought the sorcerer would try a fake reveal D2, trying to get the numbers needed so the wolves + sorcerer could control the vote and signal to the wolves who they were (though only if the sorcerer had a good feel for who is who).

    I think the village would've been hosed this game had the seer not gotten the fortunate wolf scan.

    Autumn

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Autumn on Sat Jun 25, 2011 10:26 am

    It didn't make sense to me to reveal day 2. The seer would counter reveal, and reveal their night 1 scan. I figured better to give the village a chance to lynch the seer, or hte wolves to kill him, before he revealed. And then fake reveal after night 2 if he wasn't killed.

    And yeah day 2 I didn't have any sense of who the wolves were. I figured at that point my best play was to stay in the game and try to be there at end game to swing it.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Sat Jun 25, 2011 3:14 pm

    Autumn wrote:It didn't make sense to me to reveal day 2. The seer would counter reveal, and reveal their night 1 scan. I figured better to give the village a chance to lynch the seer, or hte wolves to kill him, before he revealed. And then fake reveal after night 2 if he wasn't killed.

    And yeah day 2 I didn't have any sense of who the wolves were. I figured at that point my best play was to stay in the game and try to be there at end game to swing it.

    Once the seer survived Night 1, with correct play there is no way they should die without revealing their scan (the only way they should stay silent after the two villagers died is if they or their villager scan are about to be lynched D2 in my opinion). And if they haven't revealed by N2, unless theyve bagged a wolf (and even possibly then anyway), I can't imagine any circumstance they shouldn't reveal their scan right at the night deadline in case they are NK'ed.

    But I still see and agree with your point though. If you didn't have a clue who the wolves were, you could've done more harm than good with a fake reveal. If you screwed up, the real seer could've actually stayed quiet and let you be NK'ed.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Autumn on Sat Jun 25, 2011 7:24 pm

    Right, and even if the seer revealed and I got them lynched, we're not
    any farther along than if the wolves just night killed the seer. Once
    the seer revealed their scan, there was nothing I could do to help. And
    even if I revealed first, I didn't think it helped as much in the long
    run as if I was around at the end.

    In the small game I ran with no reveals, it would be different. There
    the sorceror could cause some real havoc (especially if the wolves night
    killed him thinking he was the seer, lol).

    Also, while I agree on your optimal play, most werewolf play is not optimal. Very possible to have someone lynched or night killed without revealing.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Mon Jun 27, 2011 10:55 am

    So if there's a No Lynch, will Jackal kill:

    a. Narcizo (the obvious choice since again he's the most anti-Jackal candidate left, at that point probably have to convince Niccus to vote CF)
    b. CF (try to make use of Narcizo's paranoia about why he would not have been killed or confuse the newbie into voting Narcizo)
    c. Niccus (get rid of the consensus most likely villager remaining and probably have to convince CF to vote Narcizo)

    I assumed last night kill we'd see Narcizo here, I'm going to assume that again. Killing either of the other two seems like more of an uphill battle, probably easier trying to convince Niccus that CF is bad than trying to convince Narcizo/CF that the other is bad.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Autumn on Mon Jun 27, 2011 4:29 pm

    Yes, I think if I was him I'd go with Narcizo. Despite his waffling, Narc's too keen of a player. You'd have to hope you can sway the new guy, and CF often leaves himself open to that kind of thing.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Autumn on Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:40 am

    Everyone still think it's Jackal? I think so, but I'm very surprised CF doesn't agree.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Admin on Tue Jun 28, 2011 10:23 am

    Yeah, I do. I'm also surprised at the kill, but I'm glad it's three active players in the endgame and presumably Jackal will argue he's not a wolf by saying if he was one he wouldn't have left Narcizo alive.

    Narcizo

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Narcizo on Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:55 am

    You guys are wrong. No Lynch on day one was the best play for the village. Particularly with a sorceror who knows what they're doing.
    And "waffling"? I don't know what you mean, Autumn. Sad
    Had Crimson actually been around I would have a long analysis as to why Jackal was the wolf but I guess I should have posted that yesterday. But I was zoning out with a cold so I would probably have made even less sense than usual. And I honestly couldn't conceive that Crimson would vote me rather than Jackal. You live and learn I guess.

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Narcizo on Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:54 am

    Zinto wrote:If I was playing in the game I know I would be jumping all over Narcizo for wanting to vote no lynch since he is one of the people who was so against it in the Dark Knight.
    I am against no lynching under circumstances where it doesn't help the village, which, admittedly, is most of them. (unless I'm a wolf). When I think it will help the village I will bring it up. Admittedly my thinking was fuzzy about it when I first brought it up but by the end of my day I was pretty sure that it was the strongest village play under the circumstances.

    Autumn

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    Re: Speculation thread - WW CXXV Dragonball Z

    Post by Autumn on Wed Jun 29, 2011 10:09 am

    Narcizo wrote:You guys are wrong. No Lynch on day one was the best play for the village. Particularly with a sorceror who knows what they're doing.
    And "waffling"? I don't know what you mean, Autumn. Sad

    I just meant that at the time I wrote that you weren't quite set on where you were voting, you had changed your vote a few times. But I was saying that despite that, I wouldn't want to leave you in the endgame because I was certain you would hone in on Jackal at that point. I think Jackal would have had a better chance convincing CF or Niccus to vote with him. I too was surprised CF went with you.

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