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    Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

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    Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:41 pm

    PF's reveal is obviously fake at this point, if bhlloy was really a wolf, there's no way they wouldn't kill him last night instead of me. So is he a wolf or cultist? The obviousness of the fake makes me think cultist, but I don't know for sure.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:59 am

    JAG IS A WOLF! KILL HIM AGAIN!

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:45 am

    So now Narcizo comes out with a seer reveal. But if his reveal is true, then either Danny + Zinto have to be the wolves, or a combo of mau or bhlloy plus one of Danny/Zinto has to be a wolf. Alright, let me work this out:

    PF and Narcizo reveals are true: bhlloy is a wolf, Narizo, PF, spleen are clear (except spleen could be sorcerer), either Danny or Zinto are the last wolf. The likelihood of this is almost nil, Zinto voted bhlloy two days in a row, Danny cast a rather deciding vote on bhlloy yesterday.

    PF's reveal is true, Narcizo's reveal is fake: bhlloy is a wolf, Narcizo is either sorcerer or wolf. In either case, it would be better to just lynch him to be sure he's not a wolf. But if this was true, then you'd have to believe a wolf voted bhlloy at some point this game and there's no reason for the wolves to leave PF alive AND remove me, who looks like the best bet to be bhlloy's partner than anyone else. So this seems as unlikely as the first scenario.

    Narcizo's reveal is true, PF's reveal is fake: PF would have to be the sorcerer, leaving some combination of mau/bhlloy/Danny/Zinto as the two wolves (though obviously not mau + bhlloy). That Danny would so readily buy PF's reveal without considering what Zinto did leads me to believe he's one of the wolves in this scenario. It would be hard to stomach bhlloy as the other with Danny leading the late charge to him, so then it'd either be mau or Zinto as the other, neither of which seems overly likely but I would have to lean mau. Still, why would PF as sorcerer fight so hard to stay alive when getting lynched means a wolf doesn't go down when he presumably doesn't know the wolves and vice versa?

    Narcizo and PF's reveals are fake: Obviously either both are wolves (which isn't at all likely) or one is a wolf and the other a sorcerer. In this case, we'll see a counter-reveal by either the other priest or the other seer (presumably Chubby was one of those roles).

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:02 am

    If Narcizo's reveal is true (which is how I'm leaning, though I'm still confused if this is the case), I'm very surprised he didn't scan bhlloy yesterday. One of the reasons I didn't want to vote bhlloy earlier today is because I figured he was the most likely scan target and the seer hadn't revealed to that point (unless the seer was Danny).

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 7:09 am

    Anyway, I think in Narcizo's position (assuming he's really the seer), I'd play this the same way. The only hope is either a wolf or sorcerer was killed off previously. If Packer is the sorcerer and there are two wolves left, he's just signaled to then that he's on their side...the wolves could just reveal and ask him to self-vote in that case.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:52 am

    The more I think about it, the more I like Danny and Mau as the wolves. Killing Chubby was a good way to get people to assume Mau wasn't a wolf, which is good strategy with this no reveal setup. So the lynch today is for all the marbles, either Zinto and spleen vote for Danny w/Narcizo or the game will be over tomorrow with PF and Danny voting the last villager.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:42 am

    PF's comment (wolf wasn't on to change their vote) doesnt make sense. Bhlloy was online when he made the reveal, zero chance he wouldn't have switched the NK if he was really a wolf.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Autumn on Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:56 am

    I really enjoy this forum and being able to watch the thinking of guys like you, JAG, even when you're out of the game. This is a great idea.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 11:09 am

    Yeah, I personally really enjoy it, keeps me into the game even if I'm dead.

    So no counter-reveal by anyone which means both reveals are highly unlikely to be fake, unless Mau and bhlloy both were villagers with roles and lied about it, which seems way out there.

    I'm trying to think of some circumstance where PF could be telling the truth and the only one that makes even a bit of sense is bhlloy + Narcizo as wolves. But again, killing me in that case seems silly when I'm the only one other than Narcizo that could reasonably be partnered with bhlloy. Why kill off the only possible villager scapegoat?

    So, I'll stick with the idea that Chubby was priest, Mau was wolf, PF is sorcerer (though like Danny said, why wouldn't he offer himself up for lynch since he probably didn't know the wolves?), Danny is wolf, and for good measure I'll say spleen as hunter.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:59 pm

    I'll have a good laugh if spleen was the cultist who pushed the vote to bhlloy the wolf.

    Autumn, sorry about my post in the dead too soon thread, I probably should've left it as a generic Drat. I was trying to be ambiguous with my role / alliegence, but I probably came off too much as villager.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Autumn on Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:07 pm

    It's no problem, but I should have thought through the implications of a no reveal game a bit further and given more specific advice to dead players. You were careful there, but someone posting there as usual could have changed the game.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:09 pm

    I like Danny's argument that he wouldn't leave PF alive if he was a wolf. Of course he would if PF revealed wolf Mau as villager, which Danny as wolf would know to be a lie.

    Having said that, Narcizo's vote switch to Packer makes zero sense as a villager, so these guys are losing me a bit.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:36 pm

    Just thought another idea...what if Narcizo is the sorcerer? He would've had a few scans to find the seer and maybe took a calculated gamble they weren't in the game by this point. That still leaves me with Packer telling the truth and a nearly inexplicable partner for bhlloy though.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:50 pm

    This will save my PMbox from exploding so often at least.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:58 pm

    Hmm, if Danny's a wolf, it's a good performance. If he's not, I guess I could see how my cryptic comment about voting / not voting bhlloy might've led a Narc/bhlloy team to NK me, assuming bhlloy didn't get back in time to change the order when it didn't make as much sense.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:35 pm

    Admin wrote:Just thought another idea...what if Narcizo is the sorcerer? He would've had a few scans to find the seer and maybe took a calculated gamble they weren't in the game by this point. That still leaves me with Packer telling the truth and a nearly inexplicable partner for bhlloy though.

    Throw enough stuff on the wall...so what happened, did spleen sacrifice bhlloy to gain trust and that's why he left PF alive? That still means bhlloy made a nutty vote on spleen earlier in the day.

    Ah, what a wonderful game this is.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:02 pm

    Hm, maybe PF as fake priest switches the Mau / bhlloy alliegences? That means PF put vote 2 down on his teammate and didn't move it when he could've saved him. That would be a puzzling call, not to mention risky if the seer had been around and could've proven him wrong. Then again, with his teammate out and him having the most votes, all that would be left for him is a risky strategy. If he was bhlloy's fellow wolf friend, why not vote spleen instead of bhlloy?

    Either way the wolves have some explaining to do after this one.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:09 pm

    I think spleen comes across the most wolfish so I guess I'll go with him.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:13 pm

    I am thinking Spleen is the wolf also. He has been extremely quiet today and pretty much ducked all the conversation. My only regret is that I revealed I should have waited but I was afraid there would be too much scrutiny in a showdown if I tried to reveal the next day,

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:15 pm

    The other thing is that clearly Narcizo thought Danny and I where villagers and that has to go in Danny's favor.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:15 pm

    At least I think he thought Danny was a villager.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:17 pm

    I can't fathom why bhlloy would vote his teammate up to two when he did. I also think they blundered killing me off.

    I think you had a tough call Zinto. I think you were the most likely NK target anyway, so it was probably just as well to reveal and get value out of the role before you were offed at night anyway.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:21 pm

    I think Narc tried to call as many people villager as he could get away with in order to tell the wolf or wolves he was on their side. He made a mistake picking Packer though, unless there was a counter-reveal today, there was no chance both reveals could be fake unless you really believe I wouldn't put out some kind of info as seer before being NK'ed N2 or that the villager of Mau / bhlloy wouldn't.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:31 pm

    I can not get passed the fact that the night kill order was not moved to Packer, if Bhlloy was a wolf. It makes no sense to me at all.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:35 pm

    Danny as wolf doesn't kill PF, pushes him to be believed after he survives, so that he gains trust as a bhlloy voter. A weird move though if true.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:38 pm

    Yeah a very interesting move. Honestly it made me doubt Packer more then anything when it all happened. It is a shame that Danny missed the first vote since I doubt he meant to.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:42 pm

    I was all over Packer with the reveal when it first happened (as you saw above). The move really made no sense though. Why kill off the second wolf? If they had lynched spleen, the game could've been over D3.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:45 pm

    It is really odd. I can't understand why in that spot Danny refused to move his vote on Spleen. He could have followed you and done so and it would have hardly looked suspicious at all. I just do not understand.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:50 pm

    I wonder if they thought I was the seer and was going to do a last minute switch to bhlloy, having scanned him N1, and was trying to catch the other wolf trying to save him? Only thing that makes sense to me, or them thinking Mau was the sorcerer and it was going to be 3-2 instead of 2-2-1.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:57 pm

    lol, Danny padding the ol post count.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:04 pm

    I am not sure why Spleen just doesn't quote his admission of being a wolf and say that is all the evidence he needs of him being a wolf.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:13 pm

    I'm not sure why Danny didn't make the arguments vs. spleen that he is now vs. before his reveal.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by CrimsonFox on Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:15 pm

    I think if Spleen is a wolf, the others probably are villagers. But who is his partner?

    I think if Narcizo is a wolf, the others probably are villagers. But who is his partner?

    I think if Danny is a wolf, the others probably are villagers. But who is his partner?

    I think if Zinto is a wolf, the others probably are villagers. But who is his partner?

    I think if JAG is a wolf, the others probably are villagers. But who is his partner?

    I think if Chubby is a wolf, the others probably are villagers. But who is his partner?

    I think if mauboy is a wolf, the others probably are villagers. But who is his partner?

    I think if PackerFanatic is a wolf, the others probably are villagers. But who is his partner?

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:19 pm

    Plus if the sorcerer was still around, they could've voted themselves and won the endgame knowing that the hunter was highly likely out of the game, so Danny's move as villager makes no sense.

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    Re: Werewolf Xtreme Speculation Thread

    Post by Narcizo on Fri Jun 17, 2011 4:41 am

    Can't believe it was wolf on wolf day two (partly due to the sorceror pushing one of the wolves) and we still managed to win, despite a freaked out sorceror. Good work spleen.

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