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    Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 12:21 pm

    Oh crap, forgot about the possibility of a brutal. They may be forced to swing at the cunning today.

    hoopsguy

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by hoopsguy on Thu Jun 09, 2011 12:38 pm

    I can tell you the wolf perspective when they made the kill:
    1.) They get a minor victory for taking out Batman
    2.) They believed that the cunning wolf would not be able to do a kill (information that has since been modified/updated) - which meant that they didn't think there was a meaningful chance to get to the 1:1 ratio

    Had it been clear that the cunning would be able to take the night kill if he was the last remaining wolf the decision last night might have been different. But I'm guessing they still would have banked the minor victory now and see if they could shoot the moon for the major victory later.

    hoopsguy

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by hoopsguy on Thu Jun 09, 2011 12:39 pm

    Admin wrote:Oh crap, forgot about the possibility of a brutal. They may be forced to swing at the cunning today.

    Hope that they are afraid of this, because there was no brutal wolf.

    Narcizo

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Narcizo on Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:07 pm

    Doh! I forgot about the possibility of there being a brutal as well. That makes things even tougher.

    Autumn

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Autumn on Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:11 pm

    They don't know that the cunning will be able to make a kill. It's only when he's the last mobster left that he gets that desperate.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:24 pm

    Narcizo, just want to say your idea for a speculation thread was a great one. I'm having as much fun here as following the actual game thread.

    Zinto

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:04 pm

    Yep the speculation thread is awesome. I love that it gives me some insight on what is going on in other people's minds since I am still terrible at figuring out wolves.

    Zinto

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:05 pm

    It looks like Tyrith is a wolf and the cunning has already been scanned. I am going to guess it is McKerney but I have no clue.

    Zinto

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:08 pm

    Also good luck on the getting the job. If you get it, it means you won't be able to cause my death next game Smile

    Narcizo

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Narcizo on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:28 pm

    Well as Hoops said that there's no brutal I guess J23 is the last wolf and he's buying trust that way.(I figured he must be good after he suggested that play until Hoops told us there's no brutal). Very smart. Really the wolves deserve the win here, there's been some really good play by them.

    Narcizo

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Narcizo on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:34 pm

    *pats self on back about (eventually) realising that Tyrith was a wolf*
    If I was still in the game I'd be nothing like as clear-sighted. I'd be going back and forth based on what everyone else was saying by this stage.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:37 pm

    If DV is the last wolf, you guys really really deserve to win. I think this is the best played wolf game I've seen in a long time, certainly since I started playing again after my hiatus.

    Narcizo

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Narcizo on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:47 pm

    Tyrith kind of gave the game away by voting himself though. If he was brutal he'd be pushing that's he's vanilla for all he's worth.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:48 pm

    J23 is advocating the correct strategy of what they should be doing since they don't know about the lack of brutal. Which doesn't mean he isn't the wolf trying to act like a villager. I think DV has to be the last wolf though:

    1. CF wasn't killed and there's no brutal
    2. Tyrith voted DV, but knew no matter who CF scanned, that he would get voted as a wolf...so why make DV seem more villager-like?

    Narcizo

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Narcizo on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:51 pm

    Admin wrote:Narcizo, just want to say your idea for a speculation thread was a great one. I'm having as much fun here as following the actual game thread.

    Cheers JAG - you get the credit for starting a forum for it. It actually makes me not feel cool with getting killed - I get to analyse to my heart's content without all the stress and anguish that accumulates over a game for me. I've probably revealed way too much of how I think as a wolf though so I'll have to do something else next time I'm one. Vote to save a wolf and such like. Smile

    thomkal

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by thomkal on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:51 pm

    So lets ask it this way without Hoops having to reveal which is the wolf. Has CF scanned a cunning wolf?

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by thomkal on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:53 pm

    ah I hadnt caught up to the game thread before asking that.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:55 pm

    It's weird that mckerney is backing off the idea of a brutal he put out initially though. He flip-flopped from not voting DV because he could be brutal to castigating J23 for not voting a potential brutal. Hmm.

    Well, like I said, wolves have really done a great job.

    Narcizo

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Narcizo on Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:56 pm

    thomkal wrote:So lets ask it this way without Hoops having to reveal which is the wolf. Has CF scanned a cunning wolf?
    Well yes he has. Hoops has implied that there's 2 wolves left. Tyrith has to be one, CF has to be Dawes which leaves the three people he's scanned, so one of those is the wolf.
    I'm fairly certain that Hoops's comments have heavily implied J23 as the last wolf. Were I in-game I'd be fairly certain DV was the last wolf now but with Hoops' info I'm pretty sure it's J23 after all.

    thomkal

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by thomkal on Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:00 pm

    yeah like I said, I hadn't caught up to the thread yet Narcizo. Smile to see CF's scan result

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:04 pm

    Right, also the last wolf doesn't know they have a NK which is probably why J23 wants to end the game now. Even still, I can convince myself again of the other two a few more times before this finishes up. Smile

    Narcizo

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Narcizo on Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:41 pm

    When does the village learn? When a bad guy wants you to believe something then it's usually not the case. (Apart from me with 4 wolves per team in the Cube. See, even when I'm a wolf I'm honest). Of course it's easy to say that once Hoops has told us there's no brutal.

    Zinto

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:52 pm

    Yeah I was wondering if it would send off warning signs that Tyrith was lying by how he was playing it. If he was really the brutal wouldn't he just not say anything and get lynched so the wolves would win.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by hoopsguy on Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:14 pm

    I didn't think I had implied anyone was the cunning wolf Smile If so, I didn't mean to - I've been trying to be coy the whole way here.

    I do think that the wolf team played pretty well here, any false modesty aside, in most respects.
    Good column:
    - controlled voting during days pretty effectively after day 1
    - created somewhat realistic tension in the thread between our members, rather than just ignoring each other (this is sometimes a struggle for me)
    - personally, I feel like I helped the remaining wolves have as much trust as possible for the end-game after I made my fake reveal
    Bad column:
    - We blew up our corrupted targets quickly, thus taking away something that was supposed to be an advantage for us.
    - We couldn't find the damn seer to save our lives.

    I don't think we had any real control over the corruption targets, just bad luck. The seer stuff is more iffy, although finding a seer that isn't playing is a tough challenge too. Short of us doing a mercy kill for the moderator, the wolves normally want to leave those inactive/quiet guys around because they are almost invariably less threatening.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:20 pm

    Yeah, I don't know how you'd be expected to find an inactive seer. I think for the parts of the game the wolves had control over that didn't mostly involve chance, it was a very well-played game.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by hoopsguy on Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:30 pm

    I'm absolutely delighted over the brutal discussion in the thread. Couldn't be happier, because I think we went from tiny chance to win (cunning not having a NK) to small chance (cunning having a NK) to 2/3 chance (eeny meeny mieny mo) of getting a win today.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by hoopsguy on Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:32 pm

    On a semi-related note, I'm thrilled to be near end game and have most/all of the participants actively engaged. It is so refreshing to see a really compelling final day - just doesn't happen as often as I intuitively think that it should.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:47 pm

    hoopsguy wrote:On a semi-related note, I'm thrilled to be near end game and have most/all of the participants actively engaged. It is so refreshing to see a really compelling final day - just doesn't happen as often as I intuitively think that it should.

    I agree (minus Darth, unless he showed up in the past few minutes).

    Autumn

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Autumn on Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:47 pm

    I agree wholeheartedly there, Hoops. So many times the endgame is dead quiet.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by hoopsguy on Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:53 pm

    Zinto wrote:Yep the speculation thread is awesome. I love that it gives me some insight on what is going on in other people's minds since I am still terrible at figuring out wolves.

    I think I get better at it only in terms of opening up my creativity on how to catch wolves, not so much in terms of actual results catching wolves Smile

    Bottom line, everyone has a tough time figuring them out. There are short-term runs where players really seem dialed in, but I don't think there is a massive level of difference between the best/worst over 10-20 games.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 6:15 pm

    So, village forgot about the Commissioner it appears...

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:34 pm

    Kind of amazing the whole game could come down to that one detail.

    Zinto

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Zinto on Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:38 pm

    I wonder if Crimson is rereading stuff and he is going to see that they missed the comish. All in all the wolves played a terrific game and putting DV up twice was a brilliant play.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:01 pm

    He's been in the thread, but didn't throw down a nightfall, so he's at least thinking about something.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by hoopsguy on Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:33 pm

    Zinto wrote:I wonder if Crimson is rereading stuff and he is going to see that they missed the comish. All in all the wolves played a terrific game and putting DV up twice was a brilliant play.

    Yeah, I think we're now past the point of suspense on who the wolves are.

    I wanted to talk to DV first before putting him up as the scan, but he wasn't around and mckerney came into the thread asking me the results of my scan. So I pushed ahead, and told him that I wanted to lose the showdown with Dawes if/when it happened because it would buy optimal trust for both of them.

    That kind of second level thinking often gets me in trouble with WW - first level thinking is usually the way to go. But I really thought that I needed to do everything in my power to get the remaining wolves trusted. We had Tyrith gunning for me non-stop for two days so I hoped that would help him. And DV was going to be the guy I was trying to throw under the bus for end-game, so I figured that should get him trust.

    The police/commish thing is going to be one heck of a small thing to hang this whole game on - realistically, I don't think this should be factoring into the decisions but I understand why it does.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Autumn on Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:12 pm

    The police thing was a pretty good catch by Crimson, especially coming in late and having to grok all the rules. He definitely doesn't seem to have noticed the commissioner thing, but I was pretty careful about the way I explained the categories to him, so I feel it's in their court. I thought we were going to have another moment of big drama and a big swing back in the village's favor when he noticed that.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:38 pm

    The rules are very clear that the Commissioner is in the Cop category. I think they are likely missing it because they were relying on Lathum's post which talks about Lt. Gordon and his three officers as opposed to the rules.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Autumn on Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:39 pm

    Yes, and I think Crimson is still a bit lost about some of the original rules, having come in at the end. I did point him at the first post, but he's mistaking the category for the officers.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:42 pm

    Well, J23 and mckerney haven't noticed either and they've been here all game. Just one of those oversights that can happen to anyone (I seem to remember missing a rule about a cultist in the Scooby Doo game from a while back).

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by hoopsguy on Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:53 pm

    Well, if Crimson is trying to see who is around at the end to help him make his decision there isn't much there.

    No J23
    No mckerney
    No Darth Vilus
    No Tyrith

    So he's going to have to make this decision on his own little island. I don't blame him for rushing into Nightfall - honestly, I'm not sure why the villagers did in this spot.

    thomkal

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by thomkal on Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:56 pm

    I would think the fact that everyone has been quiet for a while now would be enough to signal CF that he has the wrong person.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Autumn on Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:59 pm

    Nightfall basically never helps the village, in my opinion. And yes, everyone's missed the cop thing. As people mentioned above, towards endgame people tend to get fixated on what's happened the last few days and forget to stop back and try to see the bigger picture. It's funny to see the villagers get totally fixated on each other, certain the other one is a wolf.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 10:00 pm

    hoopsguy wrote:I don't blame him for rushing into Nightfall - honestly, I'm not sure why the villagers did in this spot.

    +1 I wish mckerney had put up more of a fight, trying to look back and find some evidence (albeit it would've been for the wrong person, but still trying to fight it out).

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 10:03 pm

    Deadline. Great job wolves, excellent game.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Thu Jun 09, 2011 11:09 pm

    Trying to figure out how to move this thread to the other forum which is open to all, but I haven't figured it out yet.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Narcizo on Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:46 am

    Narcizo wrote:Ok - I said I wasn't sure about Bug, didn't I? Didn't I? See! No block yesterday and that would be the game for the wolves.
    DV & Tyrith. Going to have to wriggle to get out of the scan results though. I think mckerney's overplayed his hand about Hoops being the cunning though - going to bring up questions about his being cleared.

    If I chuck enough names out there at some point I'll make a post I can quote at the end and say "Told you so".
    Wonder how things would have shaken out if Tyrith was the cunning and not DV. Wouldn't have made a difference as J23 would still have gone gunning after mckerney with the whole brutal thing.

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Admin on Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:49 am

    Narcizo wrote:My Mr Paranoia has started wondering whether 3 or 4 of Bug, mckerney, DV and Tyrith could all be wolves and decided to throw their votes on mauboy to get a huge wodge of trust. It's happened once before in the WoW game Lathum run. I've been thinking about it recently as current voting procedure is that you keep the race close on day one so you can rely on villagers to keep the race close and, potentially, save your man for you. He'll get lynched eventually if he was close and you wind up smelling of roses. Bug is the least likely because of the timing but the other three could all be wolves who have, basically, passed through the game trouble-free because they voted mauboy. The wolves haven't killed anyone who had a vote on mauboy. Given as they're the people likely to get the most trust I think that's a bit suspect.

    This one wasn't too far off either Narc. No wonder they had to get rid of the paranoid guy early on. Smile

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    Re: Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

    Post by Narcizo on Fri Jun 10, 2011 7:28 am

    Hush! Remember future wolfies - I would have been pushing to lynch Chubby from day three onwards. If you want to sew confusion into your end games then let me live.

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