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    Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

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    Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:26 pm

    I think DT is the cultist and Autumn is a vanilla villager (we'll see if I botched my guess on him yet again). No real clue on others just yet, though I'll put out my ridiculously early wolf guess as a fontisian / mauchow wolf team.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:37 pm

    Oh yeah, I feel pretty decent about EagleFan and Danny at the moment.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:41 pm

    EagleFan = seer perhaps, scanned Autumn last night with his comment that we'd learn more from a font lynch than Autumn.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Zinto on Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:13 pm

    There was a chance at one of six tie breakers yesterday
    1.No lynch
    2.Both People in the lead would be lynched
    3.The next highest vote getter would be lynched
    4.A random player would be lynched
    5.One of the two players would be randomly lynched
    6.The last player to vote causing the tie would be lynched

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:58 pm

    I like that Zinto.

    I love how Autumn's talking now in the thread as if I was still around. I don't think I can realistically be a suspect anymore.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:15 pm

    I am highly amused they tied it up again. Roll that die and tell em what they won Zinto!

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:47 pm

    Well, theory #1 down the drain. Smile. I was kind of agreeing with those who were saying font was not as suspicious as the day went on, so can't say I'm shocked. I still would not be surprised to see a cultist DT. The good thing about Eagle messing up the lynch is he may be able to slide by the night kill (I still think he is the seer, I think others picked up on that as the day went on though). I think Danny may bite it tonight.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Zinto on Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:01 pm

    I am really surprised that there were two ties in this game, when I posted the outcome of the ties earlier I assumed that they would not have a tie again

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:05 pm

    I think path looks the most suspicious at this point. Single vote on Mau that no one added to D1, vote on font D2, didn't break tie D1 though he was around. If he's not a wolf, he's done a good impression. saldana might be his partner, no one else looks as reasonable at this point. So I guess that's where I am for now.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by fontisian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:19 pm

    I could see Eagle as the seer. Doesn't make me any less irritated.
    Are DaddyTogo's constant assertions that he is vanilla normal?

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:25 pm

    Yeah, pretty normal no matter what he actually is. He usually does a bit more work as an actual villager in my opinion, though his schedule is kind of rough so I can give him a pass there. His behavior D1 when he was close to getting lynched makes me still think cultist for now (he was asking for people to move off him, but didn't appear to have a roled villager reason for it)...I was thinking maybe he was seeing if a wolf would help him out, but that would be kind of a weird cultist move. I guess he could be a wolf to be honest.

    And yeah, I would be irritated at going out the way you did. The tie there really hurt the village.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by fontisian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:28 pm

    Ironically, it could have been avoided if I stayed on Mau. I only switched to brit to try to ensure that no last minute shenanigans would result in a no-lynch. Jokes on me.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by hoopsguy on Wed Feb 13, 2013 12:43 am

    I haven't been able to get into the "parse posts" mode of analysis, but I'm definitely thinking DT is wolf and not cultist.
    He seems very interested in staying alive this game, more chatty than he is as a disinterested vanilla villager.
    I'm assuming EF, DT, Saldana, Autumn, and path will be left alone tonight.
    Danny/Rum both move up the suspects list if they are not the night kill tonight. JAG is someone that is often a threat to wolves, and Danny certainly fits that profile if he isn't sporting sharp teeth this game. Ditto Rum, assuming he is engaged as mid/end game rolls around.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by hoopsguy on Wed Feb 13, 2013 12:45 am

    fontisian wrote:Ironically, it could have been avoided if I stayed on Mau. I only switched to brit to try to ensure that no last minute shenanigans would result in a no-lynch. Jokes on me.
    Yep, late switch stuff can be really chaotic as villager or wolf.
    Virtually no chance to get people buying off on "settle everything with 10 minutes to go", especially as it gets later in the game. I personally love seeing the movement, as I feel like it really helps me start lining up "so and so can't both be wolves together" scenarios, which become a big part of my (over?)thought process at this part of the game.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by hoopsguy on Wed Feb 13, 2013 3:52 am

    Just re-read the Norse game ... couple hours of my life I'll never have back Smile
    Raiders Army was pretty good night kill - doesn't tip off much of anything in terms of likely bad guys.
    Will go DT + Danny at this point as our wolves. More or less throwing darts, but that is where I'm at right now.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Wed Feb 13, 2013 6:56 am

    hoopsguy wrote:Just re-read the Norse game ... couple hours of my life I'll never have back Smile
    Raiders Army was pretty good night kill - doesn't tip off much of anything in terms of likely bad guys.
    Will go DT + Danny at this point as our wolves. More or less throwing darts, but that is where I'm at right now.

    Ha, awesome. I'm hoping the rule set I make for the Matrix (if I can finish it and be satisfied) will be so tempting you'll join it against your better judgment.

    Yeah, at first I was surprised by the RA kill, but after reflection it was a decent kill for the reason you mentioned plus no one realistically was bringing him up as a suspect and he was low on the list of potential cultists. I'm not 100% on board with Danny as bad yet though. If Eagle=good, the wolves may have kept him around because they thought he could be counted on to drive the vote there based on his comment at the end of D2.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by hoopsguy on Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:28 am

    I'm not saying Danny being alive = wolf, but I do think that there is likely a "higher profile" wolf who doesn't want to be isolated just yet. And is confident enough that Danny isn't applying his usual heat on them.
    I know when I'm a wolf I don't want all the analysis players dead before me ... I need the talkers/analysis people around to keep the heat on me moderate instead of white hot.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Wed Feb 13, 2013 12:13 pm

    EF coming right out against Mau this morning I think is more a reflection of scanning DT as not wolf than scanning Mau as wolf, assuming I'm correct about EF=seer (and I think it would be a first if I actually correctly guessed the seer). If a wolf was scanned, it would be game over if the villager scanned D1 was not roled (vote wolf out, martyr protects seer who gets off one more scan and reveals D1 scan as clear, hunter and martyr reveal so seer doesn't scan them). Mau as wolf does have some logic though. Danny specifically came out and said he didn't seem wolfish yesterday, which would somewhat explain why he wasn't a night kill target (I wonder if the wolves suspect he might be the cultist). I think Mau as wolf would consider killing me night 1 and I specifically talked about the vote potentially being driven away from Mau / DT during the D1 vote.

    By the way, DT's vote on D1 brought back to my mind his D1 vote in the Kai game where you called him out for an incorrect self-defense vote (I think he voted someone to 5-4-4-3 instead of 4-4-4-4). I thought about bringing it up but I'm still not sure I get it. Smile

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by hoopsguy on Wed Feb 13, 2013 1:42 pm

    Going from memory (risky, I know) ... idea there was that if he was going self defense he would want to have as many candidates bunched up with him as possible rather than creating separation.

    That way he gives people more options to run the vote away from him. And if he already has his vote on the leader, he can't switch off it to another as effectively. If I'm trying to self-defend at all costs, rather than just getting a wolf, then I want maximum flexibility to switch and maximum impact when I do switch. I have less impact switching off the "5" guy to a "3" guy, than switching from one "4" to another "4", so to speak.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:32 pm

    If I had time, I'd compare what he did this game, because I'm not sure if it made sense as a villager move. Right now, I'm feeling a path-Brit wolf team with one of Danny / DT as cultist.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by fontisian on Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:47 pm

    mauchow wrote:Everyone is going to say they're vanilla arent they ?
    mauchow wrote:Eff that. Two nights in a row with ties and no idea what happens next. I'll let voting history enter the game finally before letting the wolves luck out again.
    mauchow wrote:We saw how that worked out letting people break ties.

    Mauchow is saying all the thing I want to say in thread, but can't. Too bad he's going to be lynched.

    The only thing I would add is: If you are town, you don't want to be checked. Wasting the Seer's chance to find an actual wolf is not worth proving your own innocence.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:17 pm

    Assuming the wolves don't botch the kill, it's going to be 3-2-1, so it's going to be luck if the village manages to win this now.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by fontisian on Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:23 pm

    Actually, it'll be 4-2-1. The village still has a chance.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by hoopsguy on Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:51 pm

    And they have a hunter still in the mix, but yeah - assuming no night kill on the cultist this is going to be a tough one to pull out.
    Danny got more animated in the last few hours, finally sounded like villager Danny. Not sure if it was smokescreen to cover himself as wolf (the 4 vanilla for 3 spots, which is clever regardless of his side) or just getting going a little later than usual.
    If path goes Saldana for no-votes at this stage in game, I think that is not a particularly good sign. Would certainly be frustrating, but I feel like you have to play against those in the thread and hope that the moderator takes care of finding a replacement for an inactive player.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:56 pm

    Oh yeah, forgot about saldana. Well then, as long as the seer comes out with a deadline reveal (setting their alarm for that asinine deadline time), they should still have a reasonable chance.

    I actually think they ought to reveal now and say who they scanned (assuming they're alive). Then the martyr can protect them and get another guaranteed scan in. That might be good enough to force a win depending on who the martyr is and whether or not their scans are alive.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 8:29 am

    Huh. Guess the wolves took path's statement of, "Maybe the seer scanned font+whoever else" as a seer signal. So the village wins if they pick out the correct seer reveal today unless the seer made some very unfortunate scan choices and/or forgot to submit scans.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 10:58 am

    So, wrong about EF as well. I think not revealing at deadline wasn't a very good idea, as the wolves had to have had it fairly narrowed down as to who the seer was, but it worked out in the end with an extra scan. At this point it looks like it saldana as seer (glad I moved off him D1).

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by mauchow on Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:07 am

    That was a frustrating game thanks to the two ties on first two days. I absolutely would have made the switch day one and missed it day two because I was on my phone. I was refreshing like a maniac on my phone and I missed it because I couldn't hit the bold button fast enough on my phone. I am so far off with who I think is what I think..

    I think danny has to be bad in some shape or form
    I think autumn is still a wolf
    I have been riding on brit being the seer but would not be surprised if cr was

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:26 am

    I think there's a pretty good chance Autumn was the N1 scan, so I would be surprised if he was a wolf. I agree about Danny, I think there's a very good chance he is indeed the cultist the way he got people to vote the "vanilla" villager list last night, because as a cultist you know that the outcome will be favorable for your side no matter who in that list gets lynched. I really don't see Brit as seer the way he's played without giving opinions on anyone. I think he's pretty solidly a wolf. That probably leaves CR as the other wolf.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:58 am

    In fact, pretty sure you can take CR = wolf to the bank. The wolves have been seer hunting the past two nights judging by their targets. Why did they kill RA? Because out of the blue, he voted for CR when no one else was that day.


    Last edited by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:59 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Fixed spelling)

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by mauchow on Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:59 pm

    There has to be a reveal of seer today I would think. My guess is that the seers scans are all dead but one and doesn't feel comfortable coming out. They absolutely should come out today and create the cot immediately. Then we'll either see a wolf or cultist counter with a fake reveal which essentially creates a maddening day for all. The seer will get one more scan in if the bg picks the correct seer to protect.

    I think the wolves/cultist are in a good position not to feel the need to do a fake reveal first.

    I'm just shocked at the notion that the seer may possibly not come out today.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:15 pm

    It's do or die for the village today, a botched lynch and NK lets the cultist self-vote the following day for the win (assuming the wolves don't screw up who the cultist is and NK them). The seer must come out today, I'm assuming they haven't because saldana hasn't popped in yet.

    Also, DT votes Autumn, which is funny because his logic for people not voting him is that he must have been scanned, which I think holds true for Autumn as well. He and Danny can't both be the cultist...can they? Smile

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:20 pm

    I would've thought the wolves would have immediately come out with a fake reveal to lessen the impact of the coming seer reveal. I guess they must have held off because they don't feel confident about who the cultist is.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:58 pm

    So DT looks pretty firmly cultist now. Then Danny + Autumn vanilla, Brit + CR wolves, saldana seer (probably missed a scan N1 as a hunch), EF as martyr.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by fontisian on Thu Feb 14, 2013 5:01 pm

    Feeling better about Danny because of his push to reveal today.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 6:53 pm

    Alright, well now I don't know what the heck is going on. One of the villagers really needs to spell out that this lynch has to net a bad guy or it's game over.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 9:02 pm

    I don't think it's going to happen. EF and sal both have to come on and switch their votes to DT, assuming Brit will come on and vote Autumn. Voting out the cultist would be acceptable since after the NK it would be 3-2. Bad luck for the game to have its key day on Valentine's Day. I still can't fathom why the martyr and seer haven't revealed to give the village some cleared people to vote with, to say nothing of the seer scans that should be out there.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by fontisian on Thu Feb 14, 2013 9:13 pm

    Does the seer not realize how close town is to losing right now? So frustrating to watch.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 9:20 pm

    If no one else shows up for the lynch vote and , there will be a random chance to still win, if DT ends up getting lynched or it ends up being a wolf randomly. Heck, it would be fitting to have another tie vote. Smile

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 10:06 pm

    I am laughing here. A tie because of the EF Unvote screw-up. Break out the dice again Zinto.

    Unreal, three ties in four days. I'm pretty sure that's a record that will never be duplicated (hopefully).

    The best part is, if there's no lynch, then the next day should be a tie (assuming the village gets their act together) and then we do it again tomorrow.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Zinto on Thu Feb 14, 2013 10:27 pm

    Well I am glad I made an actual tie breaker rule that could apply to three nights.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:52 pm

    I got almost nothing right this game, other than settling in on Brit and CR as the wolves towards the start of today.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by hoopsguy on Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:54 pm

    hoopsguy wrote:Just re-read the Norse game ... couple hours of my life I'll never have back Smile
    Raiders Army was pretty good night kill - doesn't tip off much of anything in terms of likely bad guys.
    Will go DT + Danny at this point as our wolves. More or less throwing darts, but that is where I'm at right now.
    And this is why my gut sucks so much at werewolf games Smile Vote analysis, post analysis, etc is how I cover up from being one of the worst guessers in the world.
    Still pretty baffled by DTs play overall, but looks like he gets to laugh all the way to the bank.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by mauchow on Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:58 pm

    DT was lucky my vote was five seconds late or we would have lynched our seer.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by mauchow on Fri Feb 15, 2013 2:09 pm

    But it may have directly linked ef to brit as brit was about to be lynched Tuesday night. There was still a slight chance that the village could have pulled it off but it would have been tough but after getting lucky with the chief random kill it evened the playing field.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

    Post by Admin on Fri Feb 15, 2013 3:30 pm

    hoopsguy wrote:
    And this is why my gut sucks so much at werewolf games Smile Vote analysis, post analysis, etc is how I cover up from being one of the worst guessers in the world.
    Still pretty baffled by DTs play overall, but looks like he gets to laugh all the way to the bank.

    He took a chance on night one and that was a play that worked out (traded one for sure scan for the chance at more and not outing the martyr right away). I think he was correct in this instance that it was the best idea in a bad position because if he had revealed, he would've been night killed since martyr saldana was MIA until the following morning post N1 deadline anyway. However, I don't think there was a good excuse for the martyr and seer not to reveal right away at the start of D4 when a bad lynch means the game is over the following day (if the village had a BG they could potentially get a block in that situation, but with the martyr there was no way to stop a night kill). Obviously the wolves will counter-reveal, but at least that narrows the field of suspects and even lynching the cultist buys you an extra day and an extra scan.

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    Re: Vanilla Flavored Werewolf

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